Jumping on a bandwagon

2nd March 2019

I’ve been licking my wounds for almost a year with a loss of almost £50 so I have kept my hand in my pockets since then but with Cheltenham just over a week away, the time’s right to return.

For today I’ve got an interesting named double Theo in the 2.25 at Doncaster at 4/1 and You can call me Al in the bumper, 5.10 at Navan at 7/4, around a14/1 double. £1 double.

The main bet is a Paul Nicholls four timer at short prices, Oleg at 11/10, Black Corton at 8/13 and Getaway Trump at 4/6 in the 1.40, 2.45 and 3.15 at Kelso respectively plus Danse Idol at 5/6 in the 3.0 Doncaster. Combined odds 10/1. £1 roll up.

 

Bryony and James.. Present the future

28th April 2018

What a Punchestown festival. The second race saw another winner for Mullins/ Townend and then all drama let loose. Samcro and Kennedy and Melon and Townend took falls at the third last hurdle leaving a tired Supasundae to win the Champion hurdle as he liked. Townend got up and was then promptly taken out of the following race along with stablemate Getabird (Patrick Mullins)at the second last hurdle, when  Patrick’s aunt Mags and cousin Danny’s horse Debuchet fell in front of them, giving Gordon Elliott a dose of good fortune for the second time this week. Not enough for Elliott though, with Willie Mullins taking the Trainers Championship after a colossal week.

Danny was injured which meant Katie Walsh got a spare ride in the next race on Antey, promptly won in a struggle with Barry Geraghty and then announced her retirement from race riding, after a stellar career of almost 200 wins and competing and winning against the boys at the top level.

After a good start with Kemboy the accumulator went down and the loss rose to £44.30. With ultra competative jump racing at Punchestown, today’s £1 each way treble comes at Sandown for the Whitbread meeting ( I know it’s Bet 365 , but to me it will always be the other), almost equally competative, at win odds of 1104/1.

It’s one Ell of a battle

27th April 2018

By the end of Thursday, Mullins lead over Elliott had grown to about €500,000, my own loss up to £43.30, Faugheen had re-established his reputation albeit as a three mile staying hurdler, cum novice chaser perhaps, next season and David Mullins had again won the big grade1, aboard Faugheen with Paul Townend in second. Footpad had also given Nick Henderson plenty to think about, with Altior, for next season. And so to day 4 and a £1 each way four horse roll up at win odds of 12000/1, mainly featuring Willie Mullins. Can Samcro keep the Mullins army at bay, well by 5.30 we will know if he is a super horse or another novice chaser for next year, probably the latter.

There is an interesting item on eBay being supposedly, an old horse manger for hay, from Aintree racecourse. There is no authentication other than it is in Liverpool, but it would make a nice hanging basket!

More €’s for Mullins…..and Elliott

26th April 2018

If you did not back Willie Mullins yesterday at Punchestown, then you were unlikely to have any winners at all, as he took an amazing 6 of the 7 first place pots, hence my loss overall rose to £42.30. This left Mullins with around a €50k lead over Gordon Elliott in the race for the trainers championship, ending at the weekend, having been half a million behind at the beginning of the week.

Paul Townend bounced back really well, showing great fortitude to land a treble and earn plenty for his enforced 3 week holiday starting soon. Hopefully he can have a good time off. However the big race went to David Mullins on Bellshill adding to his close defeats in the Irish and Aintree nationals. I still make him favourite to succeed Ruby Walsh.

Both Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown, not to mention J P McManus had a quiet Wednesday and it is likely that at least the first two will enjoy a better day today. I have gone for a treble with one for Mullins, one for Elliott and two for Gigginstown, at 209/1.

As the flat season continues to move forward towards the Guineas meeting and the Chester trials there is a nice members badge on eBay for York 1969 with a low number of 2.

Townend in a tangle

25th April 2018

Yesterdays Semele too  ran well to a point but was already weakening when the bizarre events at Punchestown occurred, with the favourite Monalee falling and bringing down Invitation Only two fences from home.  This left Al Boum Photo in front only for Paul Townend to take a long look over his shoulder before veering violently right before the last fence, crashing through the wing and taking Finians Oscar out with him. In what a few years ago could have been a very serious incident , Townend walked away uninjured but red faced. I t seems he heard a shout and thought that he must not jump the last, but the stewards saw things differently and slapped him with a 21 day riding ban for dangerous riding. It is difficult to believe that there was anything intentional about what he did as any interference would have led to a disqualification and a ban, in fact Robbie Power , rider of Finians Oscar, having given the matter some time to settle said it was just human error.

Townend has been having a difficult time following Ruby Walsh’s injury, there was the disqualification on Min at Christmas time and a whole host of fancied Mullins horses have not won. Even yesterday he was beaten on Getabird and Douvan, with both races going to more unfancied Mullins runners. One day soon Mullins will have to decide on a new stable jockey and the odds on it being Townend lengthen by the day.

Samcros half brother mentioned yesterday was bitterly disappointing and clearly all the best genes from that family are in one horse only. The overall loss rose to £41.30.

Today I have gone for a ‘bumper’ double at83/1. Dorking Boy travels over from Tom Lacey’s Herefordshire yard and surely is not merely making up the numbers, with the stable in such good form, while Tintangle represents Gordon Elliott who can do no wrong.

 

Hogan to punch his weight

24th April 2018

After a string of poor results bringing the loss to £39.30, I took a couple of days off, but with some good racing today at Punchestown,I thought I would re-enter the fray with Denis Hogan’s in form  mare, Youcantcallherthat, taking in some top novices at 50/1  in the 6.40. Many of the runners are beginning to struggle after a long hard season while she gets better with her races and offers good value for £1 each way.

An interesting runner in the Goffs bumper for Willie Mullins is Think Positive. Surprisingly he has had one run at at Towcester for trainer Peter Hedger, when a close fourth, but owner Douglas Taylor bred this one by sire Jeremy but with the same dam, Dun Dun , as super horse Samcro.

 

There was an old tipster at Ayr , backed seven horses in despair…

20th April 2018

Two winners ,two losers and a non runner increased the loss to £38.30. Today’s seven horse accumulator at 660/1 is spread between Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott. Nicholls horses are now in good form as the season nears its end for a one week break, and he could have a hat full of winners today.

 

Seriously dreaming of success

19th April 2018

One winner yesterday but the loss rose to £37.30. Today’s five  timer around 300/1 is split between Newmarkets Craven meeting and Fairyhouse.

Venetia Williams stable jockey, Charlie Deutsch, appeared in court yesterday charged with dangerous and drink driving. It seems that he might have not wanted to be seen by the police at Aintree after falling at Bechers, with the green screens erected. His injuries were apparently superficial and he has ridden two winners since. He could well be going to the races in style if he ends up with a ban or worse, as he may have to travel in Venetias Aston Martin or it could be that he will be confined to the horse box instead.

One item of interest on eBay is a picture if Anglo and Tim Norman on their way to winning Fred Winters second National in succession in 1966. I was around ten and can remember going in to school and in art filling a d’airy lead triangle round cardboard container with plater and then ‘ sculpturing’ Anglo’s head in it. I imagine it was nothing like the real thing.

Elliott dances away with it all

18th April 2018

Again only one winner and the loss rose to £36.30 yesterday. Today. I have gone for a treble at the very open looking Cheltenham fixture at odds of 146/1.

What makes a National winner? They come in all shapes and sizes but one things for sure, you need to look at anything that Gordon Elliott runs in the Cross country chase at the Cheltenham Festival. SIlver Birch was second at. CHeltenham to Heads on the Ground for Enda Bolger and then won the national. He subsequently could not repeat the performance in either race. Cause of Causes won at Cheltenham and was second at Aintree and now Tiger Roll has won both races.

It really has been Gordon Elliott’s year.  Next week he will almost certainly be crowned Ireland’s Hampton trainer after the Punchestown festival. He has narrowly pipped, by inches, his main challenger Willie Mullins in both the Irish and English Nationals. However quality will surely come to the fore again, may be next year as Mullins’ continues to recover from the loss of the Gigginstown horses. Elliott has far more ammunition but much of it is if a lower quality and it has been his winners in high value handicaps over both hurdles and fences which has got him to the top. The question is whether he can. Maintain. Those successes over a long period. If you have enough shots at the target you will surely score some of the time and Elliott often has multiple entrants. Even yesterday Mullins adopted the same approach in a high value hurdle at the rescheduled Fairyhouse Easter meeting with a dozen or so runners. He won with Low Sun for Rich Ricci at 25/1 but when did Katie O’Farrell last ride a winner for Mullins? He also had two fallers in the same race, see our previous articles, ridden by the luckless Brian Cooper and Rachel Blackmore who was lucky to walk away from her horrendous looking fall at the Chair on Saturday, riding for Elliott.

Our long range tip for Saturdays Scottish National is Guitar Pete for Nicky Richards and probably Ryan Day at about 25/1. Beaten as a four year old in the Triuph Hurdle by…….Tiger Roll.

There’s gold in that shed

17th April 2018

The tipping goes from bad to worse with only one winner yesterday and the loss rose to £35.30.

It’s a four horse accumulator today in an attempt to rectify things, at 84/1.